Canada: Barley values reduced in CWB’s March PRO for 2010/11

The CWB released on March, 25 its March 2010 Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2010-11 crop year. Malting barley values have declined by C$8 from the February PRO, while feed barley is down C$7.

Thus, CWB’s March PRO value for select 2-row malting barley is C$200/tonne, that for select 6-row malting barley – C$182/tonne. The March PRO for feed barley is C$143/tonne.

CWB’s PRO Commentary
2010-11 crop year

Designated barley

The prospects for lower barley area in Europe and North America should provide some fundamental support for malting barley markets, but large old crop supplies still overhang the market. Poor soil moisture levels in the western Prairies may impact barley yields, especially if spring rainfall is below normal. Moisture conditions in Australia look good ahead of their winter planting season and European weather has been good for winter barley production. The European market price structure is the major driver of world malt prices and the weakening Euro has significantly reduced the U.S. and Canadian dollar price levels achievable in world markets.

Feed barley

Weather challenges in the Ukraine and Russia have negatively impacted the winter barley crops as they come out of dormancy. There is still the possibility to plant spring barley on some of the damaged area. Total world barley production forecast is expected to decrease 3.9 per cent from last year. Consumption is expected to increase and ending stocks are forecast to decline. Global trade, however, is expected to decline as major importers have favourable production prospects. The weaker Euro increases the competiveness of European barley into the major Middle Eastern markets. Canadian area and production is forecast to be lower in 2010-11. Smaller supplies and strong domestic demand should support Canadian domestic prices and limit the availability of Canadian exports.

26 March, 2010