Russia: Novorossiysk sea port may lose $40 mln over grain export ban

London-listed Novorossiysk commercial sea port on the Black Sea may lose up to $40 million over a ban on grain exports imposed by the Russian government from August 15 to December 31 in response to the country's worst drought in decades, business paper Kommersant reported on August 11th.

Analysts polled by Kommersant said grain shipments from Kazakhstan could cushion the blow but these deliveries would not be sufficient for Russian grain-handling sea ports to compensate for their potential losses from the ban, the paper said.

VTB Capital analyst Yelena Sakhnova told the newspaper that the Novorossiysk sea port's losses could hit about $40 million in revenue and about $30 million in EBITDA. After the ban is lifted in early 2011, however, grain exports will rise sharply and allow the company to make up for its losses, similar to the situation in 2008 when the government imposed and later scrapped a grain export duty, she said.

Morgan Stanley analysts, who published a forecast on how Russia's grain export ban will affect the port's business, believe that the company's 2010 revenues from grain shipments will remain unchanged from the 2009 levels, if the sea port operates at full capacity, the paper said.

Seeking to compensate for potential losses from the grain export ban, Russian exporters have been striving to expedite the shipment of grain since the beginning of August. Russia's railway monopoly Russian Railways, however, imposed restrictions on the Novorossiysk sea port on August 6, a day before the grain export ban was officially imposed, the paper said.

Russian Railways also lodged a complaint against the Novorossiysk sea port to the Russian Grain Union, asking its head Arkady Zlochevsky to take measures to unload export grain rail cars heading for the port, the paper said.

Zlochevsky confirmed to the newspaper on Tuesday that there were about 1,900 unloaded rail cars with grain in Novorossiysk and 750 in the port of Tuapse. Overall, 360,000 tons of grain were stuck at railway stations near ports due to the grain ban, the paper said.

Analysts told the paper that other Russian sea ports handling grain shipments, including the ports in Rostov-on-Don, Tuapse and Yeisk, might also sustain losses.

Infranews agency analyst Alexei Bezborodov told the paper that Rusagrotrans, a subsidiary of Russian Railways specializing in grain shipments by rail, might also sustain losses but the company said the losses would be insignificant as 90% of the company's rolling stock was engaged in freight operations inside the country.

11 August, 2010