Canada: Barley values unchanged in 2011-12 PRO, down in 2010-11 - CWB

The CWB on June, 23 released its monthly PROs for the 2011-12 crop year, with barley values unchanged from last month, and for the 2010-11 crop year, with designated barley down C$3 per tonne and feed barley down C$1 per tonne.

2011-12 crop year

The value of select two-row malting barley is set at C$350 per tonne, six-row at C$333 per tonne. Feed barley value is set at C$253 per tonne.

Malting barley prices are forecast to remain firm for the start of the 2011-12 marketing year due to lower European production estimates and reduced planted area in North America, the CWB said. However as with other crops dependent largely on new crop harvest production, prices are expected to remain volatile as demonstrated by with recent fluctuations in European prices. The Board expects prices to be supported until January, when record production is expected in Australia and Argentina. The new supplies available for export will ease prices down from current values beginning early in the new calendar year. Prices in North America will be somewhat sheltered from lower international prices because a smaller U.S. barley crop will provide a higher-priced market for malting barley trade this year. China, the largest importer of barley, is forecast to have strong malting barley demand again this year. However, large 2010-11 imports from Australia and Argentina will reduce some of China's need for early new-crop imports.

The international feed-barley price structure in 2011-12 will be defined by exports available from the Black Sea region. Both Russia and Ukraine will be back on the export market starting in July due to production increases this year, following last year's drought. Black Sea feed-barley exports will be predominantly Ukrainian as strong feed demand in Russia will utilize most of its production this year. The largest feed buyer, Saudi Arabia, will be able to source close to half of its requirements from the Black Sea region this marketing year, leaving Canada, Australia and Argentina to supply the remainder.

Like other markets this month, barley is being impacted by outside macro-economic influences. Fears of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and economic concerns in Europe are weighing heavily on all agriculture commodities this month.

2010-11

Designated barley values have decreased to C$249 per tonne for select two-row varieties and to C$232 for six-row barley. Feed barley is valued at C$233 per tonne.

International barley prices have been volatile with new crop uncertainty in Europe, a major driver in global malting barley markets. Recent positive weather conditions in Europe have translated into softer price ideas, but the crop is far from being in the bin. With very limited old-crop trade, these prices have had a minimal impact on the 2010-11 PRO. As the pool year wraps up, there have been minor adjustments to the amount of barley expected to enter the 2010-2011 pool. This has contributed to a small decrease in designated barley pool returns, the CWB commented.

24 June, 2011