Russia: Grain harvest forecast downgraded, but not to the disastrous level of 2010

SovEcon downgraded its forecast for Russia's grain harvest, but not by much, saying it was "too early" to make a comparison with 2010, when drought sent wheat prices soaring worldwide, Agrimoney.com reported on May, 22.

Thanks to dryness, there were "concerns for crops everywhere - the south, Volga, Siberia," Andrey Sizov, managing director at the Moscow-based group said.

"But it is too early to say losses are going to be high," when rains could still repair yields.

"Right now and yesterday we have showers in the south, and it may rain later in the week," Mr Sizov said.

"It is not the same as two years ago," when drought sent Russia's wheat crop one-third lower to 41.5 mln tonnes.

"We are talking about more or less a reasonable crop."

SovEcon, which was one of the first groups to raise the alarm of drought damage to crops two years ago, estimated the Russian grains harvest this year at 87 mln – 91 mln tonnes - trimmed from a previous estimate of 87 mln – 93 mln tonnes, but well above 2010 levels.

Last year's harvest came in at 94 mln tonnes.

The analysis group, in its first estimate for Russia's wheat harvest, pegged it at 53 mln tonnes, below the US Department of Agriculture's 56.0 mln-tonne forecast, and the 56.2 mln tonnes the crop came in at last year.

However, SovEcon restated warnings of a disproportionate drop in Russia's wheat exports next season thanks to the lack of huge carryover stocks from the previous season, as there were heading into 2011-12, when inventories were supported by the export ban the previous season.

Wheat exports will fall more than 30% to 14 mln tonnes in 2012-13.

01 June, 2012