USA: North Dakota barley harvest well ahead of fiver-year average, crop condition good to excellent

North Dakota's barley harvest is well ahead of the five-year average, according to Steve Edwardson, executive administrator of the North Dakota Barley Council, and yet prices remain stable.

"Yields have been variable, but early indications place the state average yield in the area of 55 to 60 bushels per acres," Edwardson was quoted as saying by Farm & Ranch Guide on August, 13."Barley conditions along the northern tier of North Dakota are good to excellent, and growers are anticipating good yields."

The barley supply continues to shrink, according to figures from the USDA, showing that barley stocks in all positions in North Dakota were at 11,101,000 bushels as of June 1, down from 32,330,000 bushels from the same date in 2011. Nationally, barley stocks as of June 1 of this year were at 60,065,000 - a decline of almost 30 million bushels from a year earlier.

"This indicates that carryover stocks are being utilized and thus inventories are being depleted," he said. "Decreasing the current inventory has strengthened market prices and stimulated production."

Planted acres are also up this year, he noted, with North Dakota growers increasing their barley acres by 740,000 acres to 1.14 million acres. The state's acres were expected to increase in 2012 due to favorable barley contract prices and improved planting conditions, since most of the 2011 crop was not planted due to extremely wet field conditions. This increase in planted acres also carried over to the national picture with growers planting 3.678 million acres of barley, an increase of approximately 1.1 million acres from 2011.

"Feed barley prices have strengthened in recent weeks," Edwardson said, "and continued strength in corn and wheat markets, coupled with the depletion of barley inventories, has collectively assisted in maintaining price strength."

With the short supply of barley, little activity has been noted in the export market for both feed and malting classes; however, he expects there could be an upturn in that area of trade due to recent trade agreements. The completed U.S.-Colombia Free Trade agreement provides an opportunity for export market development for malt barley, although strong competition from Argentina is expected in the Colombia and Latin American markets.

"The North Dakota Barley Council continues to provide information services to the brewing industry in Latin America," he said. "Historically, the U.S. has exported feed barley to Japan, but the Japan market has shifted its purchases away from the United States in favor of lower priced feed barley production from Ukraine and Australia.

"However, Japan has expressed concern that U.S. growers are no longer interested in supplying the Japan market. Growers are generally interested in supplying feed barley to Japan, but this will require production to be contracted with Japan buyers at a pre-determined price."

In information Edwardson presented to those attending a recent malting barley harvest tour, he indicated barley utilization in the U.S. was historically focused on feed barley for livestock utilization. However, feed barley utilization has steadily declined since the mid-1980s, largely due to increased use of corn for livestock feed and a decline in feed barley exports. Barley utilization for food, alcohol and industrial use, most of which is utilized for malting and brewing, has remained relatively stable since the mid-1980s. Barley supplies are no longer abundant, which has resulted in a shift to contracting programs to secure production for malting and brewing. Contracting programs will need to be well refined to prevent further erosion of the production base.

Edwardson noted that current spot cash prices for barley in the region continue to remain generally stable. Spot cash prices for malting barley range from $5.95 to $6 per bushel and feed barley prices, after their recent increase, range from $5.40 to $5.80 per bushel.

15 August, 2012