UK: Spring barley area may increase in 2015

Spring cropping may increase in popularity for harvest 2015 in the United Kingdom for a number of agronomic and policy reasons. Looking at gross margins alone, there is a stronger incentive to plant spring barley this year over other spring crops. Spring milling wheat may also be a popular choice, even if milling premiums next season are at a modest level, HGCA reported on December 18.

While there can be greater risks with spring cropping compared with winter planting, spring crops offer a number of benefits that may increase the popularity of spring planting in the UK this season. With lower prices available during the winter planting window than in recent seasons, growers may take the opportunity to reduce weed and disease pressures through spring planting. Additionally, the new CAP ‘greening’ measures coming into force for harvest 2015 may encourage some growers to turn to spring crops, in order to satisfy the three-crop rule and/or plant spring pulses which can be included in Ecological Focus Areas (EFA).

Based on gross margins alone, an increase in both spring feed and malting barley area in 2015 in England could be expected, as well as spring milling wheat. The spring milling oat area may well fall due to lower incentives to plant the crop, while spring oilseed rape gross margins continue to appear relatively unattractive. The incentive to plant the pulses analysed here (spring blue peas and spring human consumption beans) appears to have declined, but there are many other reasons why pulses may be planted this season aside from gross margins alone.

With lower prices in general, crops that can attain premiums from quality and/or straw values, such as malting barley, have experienced the lowest drops in gross margins. This has helped these crops appear especially attractive for farmers in a context of low cereal prices. However, both milling wheat and malting barley gross margins are sensitive to the premium that can be achieved, meaning that farmers’ expectations will also play a large role in the planted area of these crops.

19 December, 2014