Canada: Barley production forecast to increase by 5% in 2018-19

For 2017-18, Canada’s total barley supply decreased marginally to 10.2 million tonnes due to lower production, despite high carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on January 25.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 5% to 6.16 mln tonnes due to higher feed and industrial use.

Total barley exports are forecast to increase by 5% to 2.45 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply and lower world supplies.

Canada’s barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 27% to 1.6 mln tonnes but will remain above the previous five-year average, the analysts said.

For 2018-19, the nation’s barley-seeded area is forecast to increase 7% from 2017-18 (to 2.5 mln ha) due to lower barley carry-in stocks.

Barley production is forecast to increase 5% to 8.3 mln tonnes due to the higher area and an average total yield.

Despite the higher production, lower carry-in stocks will cause total supply to decrease by 2% to 10.0 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% to 6.35 mln tonnes due to slightly higher feed use in cattle and hog production.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 4% to 2.35 mln tonnes due to higher world supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

With a lower total supply, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 19% to 1.3 mln tonnes or below the previous three and five-year averages.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease slightly from 2017-18. If early forecasts are correct then the total North American barley supply will expand for the 2018-19 crop year with a higher area. As a preliminary projection, at the end of November, the USDA projects an increase of 20% for seeded area and 35% for production. However, due to the sharply lower beginning stocks, total supply is forecasts to increase only so that ending stocks and prices remain flat. For a second year, malt barley contracting in the US barley states has been reduced as the inventory of high quality malting barley remains very high since there have been three successive years of outstanding selection rates. World barley production, and supply, is expected to increase slightly for 2018-19 as some of the world’s major producers, such as the EU and Australia, have increased their barley production. Large corn and feed wheat carry-over will provide a base for ample cereal supplies.

26 January, 2018