Black Sea Region: Greater grain supply in the Black Sea region is boosting exports and creating stronger competition in key world import markets. As Barley production reaches a near record, exports are forecast to surge by almost 2 million tonnes (50 %), much of which will go to Middle Eastern and North African markets. This cheap barley has made the EU uncompetitive so far, perhaps contributing to the Commission’s recent reinstatement of export subsidies, USDA has recently revealed. Those subsidized exports will likely displace Australia and Canada, whereas Black Sea barley still has a comparative freight advantage into the Middle East.

Note: Black Sea Region includes Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Serbia-Montenegro.

15 October, 2004