Canada: 2017-18 barley exports forecast to increase to 4-year high

For 2017-18, Canada’s barley exports are forecast to increase to a 4-year high of 2.85 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply, strong exports to China and lower world barley supplies, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on August 17.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 55% to 0.95 million tonnes and remain below the previous three and five-year averages.

The Lethbridge in-store feed barley price increased by 35% due to the tight total barley supplies, strong export movement and the decline in the availability of other domestic feed grain substitutes.

For 2018-19, the nation’s barley-seeded area is forecast to increase 13% from 2017-18 (to 2.63 mln tonnes), a rebound from last year’s record low seeded area.

Production is forecast to increase 8% to 8.5 mln tonnes due to the higher area and a forecasted average total yield.

Despite higher production, lower carry-in stocks will cause total supply to decrease by 5% to 9.6 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to remain unchanged at 6.275 mln tonnes due to lower feed use and only a slight increase in industrial use is expected.

Exports are forecast to decrease to 2.4 mln tonnes due to lower total supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast at 1.0 mln tonnes, the same as last year.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase slightly from 2017-18.

By the beginning of August, early barley crops were starting to come off and signalled the beginning of harvest pressure on prices. Conditions are quite variable across regions so final yields and production estimates are uncertain.

World barley production is expected to decrease due to declines in Russia and Ukraine, along with low yields in Australia and some of the EU countries. World feed barley prices have increased in value over the past two months reaching near US $240/tonne (t) mark for the first time since May 2014. Similar to last crop year, most of the gain is attributable to the sharp rise in domestic Australian feed barley prices, after a smaller crop and a strong export program has depleted supplies. Australian feed barley is trading at only a slight discount to the price of malting barley. The world FOB price for feed barley continues to trade at a large premium to corn, with the 2017-18 crop year trading at its highest level in five years.

16 August, 2018