Canada: For 2004-2005 barley production in Canada is estimated by AAFC (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) to increase by 6% due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area. Supplies are expected to rise by 10% due to higher carry-in stocks, AAFC revealed on October 8. Feed use is projected to increase significantly, due to higher supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Exports of malting barley are expected to drop significantly as lower crop quality reduces the selection rates, although import demand from China is projected to rise sharply. Exports of feed barley, for the crop year, are expected to increase significantly from 2003-04 due to increased supplies and low prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase sharply. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to decrease by about $25/t from 2003-04 to $110/t, due to increased domestic supplies and lower US corn prices. The CWB September PRO for No.1 CW Feed Barley for the first pool period (August-January) is $113/t I/S VC/SL, versus $167/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is expected to decrease to $186/t from $200/t for 2003-04, mainly due to higher supplies expected in Europe and Australia.

20 October, 2004