Canada: Barley production estimated 6% higher than last season

For 2018-19, Canada’s barley production is estimated to have increased by 6% from 2017-18 to 8.4 million tonnes on higher area harvested, despite a lower yield, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its April report.

The quality of the barley crop depended on when it was harvested. The early harvested crop was very good. There was significant quality degradation in unharvested crops in the northern grain belt. Overall, the quality of barley selected for malting was good. Total supply is lower than last year due to low carry-in stocks.

Canada is expected to export 2.7 mln tonnes of barley for 2018-19, which is 11% of the world trade. The exports include 2.0 mln tonnes for grain exports and 0.7 mln tonnes for products. The major export destinations are China, the US, Japan. According to Statistics Canada (STC), barley grain exports for the first six months in 2018-19 were 1.2 mln tonnes versus 1.0 mln for the same period last year but the export pace is expected to slow-down for the remainder of the crop year. Exports of malting barley for the six months reached 258 thousand tonnes, compared with 294 thousand tonnes for the same period last year.

Total domestic barley use for 2018-19 is forecast to increase marginally.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to a record low level of 0.9 mln tonnes due to lower supply.

As a result of lower supplies and stronger demands for exports and domestic use, the average price of feed barley at Lethbridge for the crop year is forecast at C$255/t, about 12% higher than last year. Prairie malt prices have been 16-24% higher than a year ago.

World barley production for 2018-19 is estimated at 141 mln tonnes, the lowest in five years, according to International Grains Council (IGC). World trade is forecast at 28 mln tonnes. World barley stocks are expected to be historically low as nearly all of the world major producers and exporters had smaller crops and, in many cases, the quality was also lower than normal. World prices for feed barley have been very strong compared to corn prices. Lower world supplies of malting barley are pushing these prices higher. Due to the lower supply of quality feed barley, relatively high prices of feed barley and the abundant supply of corn worldwide, the demand for corn has displaced barley in some countries.

For 2019-20, area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 14% compared to 2018-19 due to high barley prices and low carry-in stocks.

Production is forecast to increase by 16% to 9.7 mln tonnes due to higher area harvested and yield. Total supply is forecast to increase by 10% to 10.6 mln tonnes.

Exports are forecast to increase slightly due to higher domestic supplies and a return to normal trade patterns. Total domestic use is expected to rise due to higher feed use in cattle and hog production. With a higher supply, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by about 60% to 1.5 mln tonnes. This is about 5% higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease by 12% from 2018-19 to C$225/t due to increased world supply.

The area seeded to barley in the US is forecast by USDA to be unchanged for 2019-20. Total barley production in North America is expected to increase due to higher production in Canada. However, due to the sharply lower carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to increase only slightly in North America. This implies that carry-out stocks will remain low and that prices will remain relatively strong, although lower than last year.

The IGC expects world barley production for 2019-20 to increase by 5% to 149 mln tonnes due to higher production in the EU, Australia and some Black Sea countries. World trade is projected to increase to 27 mln tonnes, due to the recovery in production. World barley stocks are expected to increase but remain low. Large corn inventories will put pressure on coarse grain prices.

17 April, 2019