Canada: CMBTC expects 5-10% increase in Canada’s barley seeded area this season

As seeding approaches in Western Canada, industry pundits are busy making forecasts for 2019 crop areas. The industry is projecting barley seeded area to rise given strong prices for feed barley, reasonable values for malting barley and very low overall barley carryout this year. The most recent Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada report, released April 16, forecasts barley area in Canada will increase by 14% in 2019 to 3.0 mln hectares (7.4 million acres), with production projected at 9.7 million tonnes.

Most people in the industry, however, expect a more modest increase in area, closer to 5-10%, with production expected to rise to between 9 – 9.5 million tonnes (compared with 8.4 million tonnes in 2018). At the CMBTC, they are expecting a 9% increase in area, with production forecast at 9.3 million tonnes.

In 2018, malting barley accounted for 56% of total barley seeded area in Western Canada, or 1.41 million hectares (3.5 million acres), with the balance in general purpose varieties (primarily feed). For 2019, the CMBTC expects both feed and malting barley area to rise, with malting barley area to account for 55% of barley seeded area in Western Canada, or 1.57 million hectares (3.9 million acres). Based on trend yields of 3.59 tonnes/hectare (66.7 bu/acre), this will result in about 5.0 million tonnes of malting barley production. Assuming 60-65% of malting barley meets malt specifications, this would mean a supply of 3.0-3.25 million tonnes of malting barley in the coming year.

The two most dominant varieties in the past 20 years have been CDC Copeland and AC Metcalfe, and today these remain the two most popular varieties grown for the domestic and export markets. In 2018 CDC Copeland accounted for over 45% of malt barley seeded acres while AC Metcalfe fell below 30% for the first time since 2002. AAC Synergy, which was registered in 2012, has been gaining traction in the past few years and in 2018 area jumped to over 10% of total seeded area to malt barley, solidifying its place as a mainstream Canadian variety. Newdale continues to be a variety that performs well for producers in certain regions, retaining around 2% of seeded area.

In 2019-20, the trend for declining AC Metcalfe acres and increased AAC Synergy acres is expected to continue. The strong feed market is supporting Synergy acres in particular, given the variety’s impressive yields. The domestic malting industry in Canada is now using AAC Synergy to varying degrees in their operations, and markets outside Canada have started to purchase the variety. Still, producers should check with their local malt buyer about contracting and moving this variety, unless they have ready access to a feed market.

Canada also has a suite of promising new malting barley varieties that are being introduced and tested in both the domestic and export markets. Two of these varieties that will be available in limited commercial quantities for the first time in 2019 are AAC Connect and CDC Bow.

Additional new varieties such as CDC Fraser, which is suitable for markets like China with high enzyme requirements, and Lowe, which is tailored for the all-malt (or craft) brewing sector, and are also currently being scaled up and will be ready for production trials this fall.

Gaining acceptance of new varieties can be a difficult process, with end-users understandably hesitant to change what is already working. But new Canadian varieties all meet or exceed minimum quality requirements established by the industry, and also offer improved agronomic performance and better resistance to disease, boosting yields and quality, and ultimately making Canadian malting barley more competitive both in the field and the market place. As a result, end-users should test and evaluate these new varieties, identify which ones meet their quality requirements and signal their preferences back along the value chain. Interested end-users can contact the CMBTC for quality data and samples of new varieties.

Meanwhile, Canadian malting barley producers are busy test driving these new varieties in the field to see which ones have the greatest success on their farm.

19 April, 2019