Canada: Barley supply down 4% from 2017-18

For 2018-19, the supply of barley in Canada fell by 4% from 2017-18 to 9.7 million tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on June 14.

Exports are forecast to increase by 5% to almost 3.0 mln tonnes.

Total domestic barley use is expected to decrease mainly on lower feed use, waste and dockage (FWD).

Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 28% to 0.9 mln tonnes, which is 44% lower than the past five year average.

World barley production for 2018-19 is estimated at the lowest level in six years, according to USDA. Carry-out stocks will be historically low, including a steep decline in major exporters. Due to lower imports by China and Saudi Arabia, world trade is expected to decrease. Amid tight supplies, world prices for feed barley have been very strong, compared to corn prices. Combined with abundant supplies of corn worldwide, corn has been used as an alternative crop for feed barley in some countries. As a result of lower supplies and strong demand, the feed barley price at Lethbridge is forecast at C$255/t, about 12% higher than last year. The average Prairie malting barley price is 17-24% higher than last year.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 10% from 2018-19, due to high barley prices and tight carry-in stocks.

Production is forecast to increase by 12% to 9.4 mln tonnes while total supply to increase by 7% to 10.3 mln.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to the production recovery in the world major exporters and a return to normal trade patterns.

Total domestic use is expected to rise due to higher feed use in cattle and hog production.

Owing to higher supplies, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by about 60% to 1.5 mln tonnes. This is about 5% higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is expected to increase from the level in 2018-19 due to higher US corn prices in 2019-20.

In this spring, the seeding progress of barley on the Prairies has been well ahead of normal due to ongoing dry weather, but rain will be needed for crop germination and development.

The USDA expects world barley production for 2019-20 to increase to the highest level in most recent 10 years, largely due to higher production from the world major exporters. World trade is projected to increase, owing to lifted import forecasts for Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase but remain low. Large corn inventories will put pressure on barley prices.

16 June, 2019