Canada: Barley exports up 12% in 2018-19, expected to fall in 2019-20

For 2018-19, domestic feed use of barley in Canada decreased by nearly half a million tonnes from 2017-18 to the second lowest level on record, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its September report.

Exports increased by 12% to 3.16 mln tonnes which is the highest level of the last decade.

Carry-out stocks declined to the historically low level of almost 0.9 mln tonnes.

The average price of feed barley in Lethbridge feedlots was a near record of C$260/t, due to the tight supply and strong demand.

For 2019-20, barley production in Canada is estimated to increase by 19% to almost 10 mln tonnes, as barley output in most barley producing provinces, except Quebec, increased. About 60%, or 0.97 mln tonnes, of the increase in production comes from Alberta, the leading barley producing province in Canada, and 39%, or 0.62, mln tonnes from Saskatchewan. The supply of barley in Canada is expected to increase significantly from 2018-19 due to sharply increased production which more than offsets historically low carry-in stocks.

Barley domestic use for 2019-20 is expected to increase from 2018-19 reflecting higher feed use.
Exports are forecast to fall due to improved supplies in competing countries and lower shipments to China. Carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase sharply.

The average price of feed barley in Lethbridge feedlots has continued to decline since Mid-June, in anticipation of abundant feed grain supplies for 2019-20. As a result, the feed barley price for
2019-20 is anticipated to decrease from 2018-19.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to rise to its highest level since 2008-09, largely due to higher output in the major world exporting countries according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Barley production in the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase. World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and rising demand. Increased imports to Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco will more than offset decreased deliveries to other countries. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years.

24 September, 2019