World: Grains and oilseeds consumption increases but stocks are still comfortable

World consumption of grains and oilseeds increases from year to year, stocks are reducing slowly, but supplies are still comfortable, H. M. Gauger GmbH reported at the beginning of November.

Nevertheless this year price levels recovered well from their summer lows, particularly for wheat; Mediterranean/Mideastern countries bought large quantities simultaneously and paid up to USD 25,- per ton more than a month ago.

Prices of corn and barley are around USD 10,- up since end September. Black Sea offers have dried up to an extent, that they are less competitive in world markets and give other origins, especially the EU, a better chance to sell their surpluses.

Bulls point to poor harvesting conditions in the North American plains, and poor crop outlooks in Argentina, South Africa and Australia. Bears expect the price bubble to disappear in view of sufficient supplies and increased offerings.

Politics continue to play a great part in commodity markets: the Chinese/U.S. trade negotiations, which already led to fairly large Chinese soybean purchases, the unsolved trade barriers for Canadian canola and Australian barley to China, the new government in Argentina, which will re-introduce export taxes on grains. And, finally, the Brexit has again been postponed, till 31 January, 2020.

24 November, 2019