Canada: Total barley supply up by 17% in 2019-20

For 2019-20, the total supply of barley in Canada increased by 17% from 2018-19 due to higher production despite historically low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their June report.

Total domestic use is expected to increase by 20%, largely due to strong feed use.

Exports for the first nine months of the crop year fell by 22% and 3% for barley grains and products, respectively. Total exports are expected to decrease based on the export pace.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise sharply from last year largely due to the significant increase in supply.

Increased barley supplies in Canada and around the world have weighed on barley prices. For the crop-year to-date, barley prices in the Prairie Provinces declined from a year ago but remained strong. For the entire crop year, the feed barley price at Lethbridge feedlots is expected to be 12% lower than last year.

Since 2014-15, China has been the largest export market for Canadian barley, taking more than half of Canadian barley grain exports. For 2019-20 to April, exports to China decreased by 18% particularly due to the declined exports to this country in February and March and nil in April.

The US is the second largest market for Canadian barley. Exports to the US increased by 19% and 1% for barley grain and products, respectively.

Japan is another important importer for Canadian barley. Exports of barley grain to Japan increased by 17% but decreased by 1% for barley malt.

World barley production and supply in 2019-20 have reached their highest level in the past two decades, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia, Ukraine and Australia. World trade volume is expected to be similar to last year. Total consumption and carry-out stocks are expected to be higher than the previous year.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is expected to decrease by 2%.

Production is forecast to decrease by 8% from last year, using the five-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) averages for yield and area harvested. However, with large carry-in stocks, supplies are expected to be marginally higher than in 2019-20, which is anticipated to encourage exports.

Domestic use are expected to fall due to lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise due to large supplies relative to demand.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to drop from 2019-20 due to increased domestic supplies and expected decline in demand. In addition, large corn supplies around the world will restrict feed grain prices.

World barley production for 2020-21 is expected to fall slightly but total supplies are expected to rise due to higher carry-in stocks. World trade volume is expected to be slightly lower than the previous year as large supplies of relatively cheaper corn are anticipated to replace some feed barley. Total consumption is expected to rise but will be limited by large corn supplies around the world. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase.

25 June, 2020