Canada: Barley crop forecast to decrease by 1% in 2020-21

For 2020-21, total barley production across Canada is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to decrease by 1% from 2019-20 to 10.3 million tonnes, on expectations for a slightly higher area harvested, despite estimates for lower average yields. If materialized, the production would be 17% above the previous five-year average.

Combined with higher carry-in stocks, Canadian barley supply is forecast at 11.3 mln tonnes, roughly the same level as last year.

Harvesting of barley in Western Canada has finished. The three Prairie provinces all reported good quality at provincial level in their final crop reports. The average provincial yield for barley in the top two barley producing provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, is reported at 4.00 t/hectare and 3.60 t/hectare, respectively, versus STC’s estimates of 3.96 t/hectare and 3.39 t/hectare for these two provinces, respectively.

Exports are expected to remain strong throughout the year against a backdrop of strong demand for animal feed from the international market. STC and the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) have reported a strong export pace since the start of the year.

Domestic use is expected to decline, mainly due to lower feed consumption in anticipation of a reduction in the backlog of livestock and good supplies of other feed grains. Industrial use is expected to recover, but will still be lower than prior-year levels.

Carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% from last year and to be 27% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 3% from 2019-20 to $240/tonne, based on cumulative average price for the current crop year compared to a year ago, as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic feed use.

World barley supply for 2020-21 is anticipated to increase by 1% to 203 Mt, particularly due to a increase of 1.8 Mt or 17% in output from Australia, as well as a minor rise in output from the EU and Kazakhstan, and an increase of 3% from Russia, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, barley production in Ukraine is estimated to fall sharply by more than 1.5 Mt or 16% from the previous year. Argentina
projects to produce less barley in 2020-21. World barley consumption is forecast to expand by 1% to 156 Mt on higher feed demand, as well as food, seed and industrial use, mainly by China and the EU.

World demand for barley imports is forecast to increase by 2% to 27.3 Mt. World carry-out stocks are expected to rise marginally from last year but still reach a recent four-year high due to an increase in Australia, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

22 November, 2020