Canada: Barley production up 3% in 2020-21 but expected to drop by 12% in 2021-22

For 2020-21, barley production in Canada increased by 3% from the previous year to 10.7 million tonnes (Mt), largely due to higher harvested area and better yields, reaching the highest level since 2008-09, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on January 25.

Total supply has reached a ten-year high at 11.8 Mt, due to good production, despite low carry-in stocks.

Canadian barley exports, including grain and products, are expected to be 3.5 Mt, 15% higher than last year, based on the current strong export pace.

Domestic use is expected to decline slightly on lower feed consumption. Industrial use is expected to recover, but will be lower than the level in 2018-19.

Owing to larger supplies, carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 5% from last year, but are still 25% lower than the previous five-year average.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 6% from 2019-20 to C$245/t as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic use, as well as supportive corn prices.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that 2020-21 world barley production will remain stable from last year, due to increased barley production in Australia, Canada and Russia offsetting lower barley production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Argentina.

World carry-out stocks are expected to be up by 3%, with most of the increase being located in Australia and Russia, the major exporting countries, and China, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the major importing countries.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease by 7% to 2.9 million hectares (Mha), as strong acreage competition from oilseeds is expected to attract more areas than barley, despite good feed barley prices.

Production is forecast to decrease by 12% to 9.5 Mt on forecasts for lower harvested area and yield, using the previous five-year averages.

Supply is forecast to drop by 10% to 10.6 Mt due to lower production more-than offsetting the rise in carry-in stocks.

Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use.

Exports are expected to fade on anticipation of lower buying from Canada’s major barley importers and lower available domestic surplus.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall on lower barley supply.

Average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to increase slightly on forecasts for lower domestic barley supply.

The International Grains Council (IGC) projects world barley production for 2021-22 to decline, which will result in lower total supply, despite higher carry-in stocks. Alongside forecasts for increased consumption, carry-out stocks are project to drop.

26 January, 2021