Canada: 2020-21 barley and malt exports forecast 47% more than last year

For 2020-21, the combined exports of raw barley grain and grain equivalent of malt from Canada are revised upwards to 4.5 million tonnes (Mt), including 3.75 Mt for grain exports and 0.75 Mt for the grain equivalent of barley malt exports. This is 47% more than the volume of the last crop year, largely due to brisk grain exports and relatively stable barley product exports, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada analysts said in their July report.

The Canadian Grain Commission’s (CGC) weekly report shows barley grain exports for the August 1, 2020 – June 27, 2021 period being close to 3.7 Mt, 88% higher than the volume during the same period a year ago. The barley grain export pace is expected to slow down for the remainder of the crop year as supplies dwindle.

Barley imports for 2020-21 are expected to rise sharply from last year to 0.27 Mt, as strong demand for feed grain in western Canada, especially in Alberta, has resulted in surging barley imports.

Total domestic use is anticipated to decrease from last year, mainly due to lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are projected to decline sharply from last crop year to 0.5 Mt, the lowest level on record. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 4%, the historically low level.

The average feed barley price in Lethbridge for the entire crop year is expected to reach C$290/t, higher than the record level of C$279/t in 2012-13, due to tightening domestic supply and firming prices in neighboring markets.

For 2021-22, Canadian producers seeded nearly 3.36 million hectares (Mha) of barley in total, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) June seeded area survey. This is 4% lower than the March forecast, but 10% higher than last year's level and the highest since 2009. So far, barley area is 6% and 19%, respectively, higher than last year in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the top two barley producing provinces in Canada, while it declined in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.

Nationwide production is forecast to increase only slightly from 2020-21 to 10.9 Mt, as the 10% increase in seeded area is expected to be largely offset by anticipated lower yields and a higher abandonment rate. This, coupled with historically low carry-in stocks, will result in a 4% reduction in supply, compared to the previous year, though it will still be the second highest level in more than a decade.

Total demand, including exports and domestic use, is anticipated to drop.

Carry-out stocks are expected to be close to the historical low level of the previous year.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease from the record high level in 2020-21, based on the projected lower demand, but supported by the higher US corn price forecast for 2021-22.

According to the USDA’s June Acreage report, the 2021 barley area in the US remained flat from last year at 2,603 thousand acres (Kac). Area for harvest is forecast at 2,044 Kac, 4% lower than last year. In Montana and North Dakota, the top two barley growing states in the US, area seeded to barley increased by 3% and 9%, respectively, from last year, while it decreased by 6% in Idaho, which is the third largest producing state. Due to the higher expected abandonment rate, harvested area is forecast to increase by only 4% from last year in North Dakota, and decrease by 8% and 6%, respectively, in Idaho and Montana. Along with the drastically lowered yield forecast, total production is predicted to decline by 31% from 2020.

Globally, 2021 barley production has been revised up for Australia and Ukraine, but down for the EU, Russia and Kazakhstan, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. So far, combined barley production in these countries has been reduced by 1.3 Mt (1%) from the June report, resulting in aproduction decrease of 2.6 Mt (2%) from 2020-21.

22 July, 2021