Canada: Barley supply at 7.81 mln tonnes down sharply from 2020-21

For 2021-22, Canadian barley supply is revised lower from last estimate, reflecting a decline in total production as reported by Statistics Canada (STC), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its December report.

Total supply is now projected at 7.81 million tonnes (Mt), down sharply from 2020-21 and a record low level, primarily due to production issues in Canada’s Prairie provinces, as well as record low carry-in stocks.

STC confirmed in its final production report for 2021 that the 2021 barley crop is the smallest on record in Canada. Set at 6.95 million tonnes (Mt), the final Canadian barley production for 2021 is
down 3% from STC's September estimate of 7.14 Mt and well below 10.74 Mt a year earlier. The decrease in national production was largely driven by the much smaller 2021-barley crop in Western Canada, compared to 2020, because of the severe drought on the Prairies. In the final 2021 production report, barley production in Western Canada for this year is estimated at 6.55 Mt, down from the September estimate of 6.82 Mt and well below the 10.35 Mt a year earlier.

Due to the tight supply, demand for both domestic feed consumption and exports will be sharply lower than last year. Carry-out stocks are projected at 300 thousand tonnes, a record low level.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is revised higher from last estimate and projected at a new record of C$420/t, up sharply from the previous record set in 2020-21. Prices are supported by tight carry-in stocks, significant crop production problems due to drought, robust demand and stronger prices of other grains.

18 December, 2021