Kazakhstan: Wheat and barley production to rebound significantly in 2022-23

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is expected to rebound significantly in 2022-23 and regain its market share lost due to lower production last season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the World Grain reported on October 27.

Exports of barley, wheat and wheat flour are expected to reach multiyear highs on strong production and steady demand from importing countries, the USDA said.

Wheat production is estimated at 14.5 million tonnes, an increase of 23% from the previous year and a 1.5-million-tonne increase from the previous USDA estimate.

The USDA increased the forecast based on government reporting, data showing improved precipitation and weather conditions and a consensus among wheat producers.

The wheat total area was harvested on 12.8 million hectares, or an estimated 100% of the harvested area.

Wheat and wheat flour exports are estimated at 9 million tonnes, 7% higher than the previous market year and 1 million tonnes higher than USDA estimates. Traders expect Kazakhstan to regain the market share it lost in 2021-22, especially to Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.

Barley production is estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, an increase of 30% from 2021-22 and 400,000 tonnes higher than the USDA’s official estimate. Like wheat, the increase was based on official government reporting, data showing improved precipitation and weather conditions, and a consensus among barley producers.

Barley exports are estimated at 1 million tonnes, double last year’s export volume and 400,000 tonnes higher than USDA’s official estimate.

“This expected increase in exports is due to higher production, and trader expectations that they will regain market share to Iran, Uzbekistan, and China in MY 2022-23,” the USDA said.

28 October, 2022