Canada: Barley supplies projected sharply up in 2022-23

For 2022-23, Canadian barley supplies are projected at 10.6 million tonnes (Mt), up sharply from last year’s record low of 7.9 Mt. This is primarily due to a rebound in production compensating for record low carry-in stocks, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its March report.

As a result of the recovery in supply, demand for both domestic use and exports is expected to increase significantly from last year. Total domestic use is forecast at 6.0 Mt, up 28% from last year on higher feed and industrial use. Total exports are projected at 3.7 Mt, up 37% from last year, with additional support from the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) data which shows a decrease in production for some of the world’s major barley exporting countries and, respectively, a lowered export outlook. The major international destinations for Canadian barley and products include China, the US, Japan and Mexico.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.9 Mt, rising sharply from last year’s record low and marginally
above the previous five-year average.

There was a downward trend seen over the past month in the Lethbridge feed barley price. For the crop year to-date, the Lethbridge feed barley price averaged around C$418/tonne (t). For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed barley average price is forecast at C$410/t, down nearly C$20/t from last year’s record high, mainly due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supplies and lower US corn prices. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong row crop prices and robust demand.

Globally, the USDA indicates a production decline and a decrease in exports for some of the world’s major barley exporting countries and regions, including Ukraine, Argentina and the EU. Specifically, barley production in Ukraine is estimated to decline by nearly 40% from last year to reach the lowest level in fifteen years. Therefore, Ukraine exports are expected to drop to well-below half of last year’s volume and to be at a nine-year low. For Argentina, its barley production has declined sharply from last year and exports are projected to drop by more than 30% from last year.

For the EU, both its barley production and exports are projected to drop to a recent four-year low. For 2023-24, Canadian barley area is forecast at 3.0 million hectares (Mha), up 5% from 2022-23 and only marginally higher than the previous five-year average. Assuming average abandonment and yield potential, Canadian barley production in 2023 is projected at 10.0 Mt, remaining relatively unchanged from the previous year, despite larger acreage.

Supported by an expected increase in carry-in stocks, total supply in 2023-24 is projected at 10.9 Mt, up 3% and 6%, respectively, from 2022-23 and the previous five-year average. Total domestic use is predicted to increase from 2022-23 on larger feed use, which is above the average level given good domestic supply. Exports are projected to decline, given the outlook for larger global feed grain supplies, but still above the average level.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, up 11% from the previous year and a recent six-year high.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$350/t, lower than C$410/t predicted for 2022-23, partly reflecting an anticipated good domestic supply and lower US corn prices in 2023-24.

23 March, 2023