China: Grain feed and residual use projected to rise slightly in 2023-24

China’s grain feed and residual use in marketing year 2023-24 is projected to rise slightly to 285 million tonnes, up 2.7% from 282.3 million tonnes in 2022-23, according to a Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

FAS Post Beijing anticipates corn production in 2023-24 to edge higher to 280 million tonnes due to a larger planted area at 40.927 million hectares (up 1.9%) and improved yields. Feed and residual demand for corn is expected to be 222 million tonnes in 2023-24, growing 2% from 220 million tonnes year-on-year.

The FAS sees 2023-24 corn imports at 20 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes lower than the June forecast, as alternative domestic and imported grains free from tariff rate quota (TRQ) requirements are available to replace corn in feed; substitution of domestic old stock rice and sprouted wheat as well as imported sorghum and barley for corn will be significant.

“Traders unable to competitively import corn or receive TRQs have an active interest in alternative grains such as domestic sprouted wheat and old stock rice and imported barley and sorghum as replacements for corn in feed rations,” the FAS said. “On the other hand, government-backed offices and trading enterprises will likely continue building corn reserves by buying imported corn when it is priced competitively.”

The forecast of milled rice production remains unchanged at 149 million tonnes, despite high temperatures and typhoon damage throughout the summer, offset by increased precipitation in arid southern areas that benefited from the extra rain.

21 November, 2023