Ukraine, EU & Russia: Ukraine’s barley prices up on strong export demand and low yields in the EU and Russia

The first data on barley harvesting in the EU and Russia indicate lower average yields than last year. In Ukraine, barley yields are still higher than last year, but in some regions where there was a shortage of rainfall, barley has a low nature and yield, UkrAgroConsult reported on July 9.

In France, winter barley has been harvested on 50% of the area, but the yield is much lower than the 6.73 t/ha forecasted by the Ministry of Agriculture. Agritel analysts forecast winter barley yields in the range of 5.46-5.57 t/ha, and the total harvest at 7 million tons, which is 27% lower than last year.

As of July 3, Russia harvested 2.79 mln tonnes of barley from 672.1 thousand hectares or 8.6% of the area, with the average yield of 4.15 t/ha, down 5.5% from last year. As the harvest progressed from south to north, the average yield per week decreased by 23%. Reduced planted areas and barley yields in Russia will reduce exports and increase demand for Ukrainian barley.

As of July 5, Ukraine harvested 1.56 mln tonnes of barley with the average yield of 3.87 t/ha from 402.7 thousand hectares or 32% of the area, while last year at this time, 235 thousand hectares or 16% of the area was harvested with the yield of 805.8 thou tonnes of barley with the yield of 3.43 t/ha.

In 2024/25 MY (as of July 8), Ukraine exported only 7 thousand tonnes of barley compared to 65 thousand tonnes in the same period last year.

Traders initially contracted barley of the new harvest at 7700-7850 UAH/t, but then lowered prices to 7100-7200 UAH/t, after which producers reduced sales. Now, to accumulate the necessary shipments, traders are forced to raise prices, so during the week they raised them by 200-300 UAH/t to 7400-7600 UAH/t or 160-163 $/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

The decline in the yield and quality of barley in France may increase the demand for malting barley in Ukraine, whose prices are still low at 7000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant and inferior to the prices of feed barley, although last year the premium for malting quality reached 2500-3000 UAH/t.

10 July, 2024