World: Europe harvest forecast affects feed barley price

A predicted 14% rise in the Black Sea barley harvest, and increase in exports from Russia and the Ukraine, has warranted adjustment to new season gross feed barley pool estimates, ABB Grain released July 20.

This week, ABB Grain reduced by AU$4/tonne its estimate for 2006/2007, to AU$166/t. The malting barley 1 estimate (AU$189/t) remains unchanged. At AU$166/t new season feed 1 is AU$3/t higher than 2005/2006’s equivalent.

Forecast larger barley crops this year in Europe, particularly Black Sea region, besides North Africa will likely keep downward pressure on international feed barley prices.

However, this movement is against most grain price trends. Much of the European barley harvest will be on the international market before Australia’s new crop; we are optimistic feed prices will turn around by year’s end.

Currently, Black Sea barley harvest could be up to 32 million tonnes (28 million in 2005). If this occurs, Russian and Ukrainian feed barley exports may increase 1.5 million tonnes. European Union crop prospects are ‘good/very good’.

ABB’s feed barley price revision reflects these developments and the impact it might have on returns from feed barley markets – in particular the Middle East – and recent currency movements.

In North America, Canadian barley production will be down about 10% on last year, resulting in reduced exports of malting barley. A small drop in the US barley harvest is predicted.

Recent hot weather across North America also will put malting barley supplies under further pressure. EU malting barley will probably remain uncompetitive into China (ABB’s largest malting barley market) due to strong EU market values and European supply versus demand.

21 July, 2006