USA: Early harvest reports indicate good barley crop which may put lid on prices
Hot and dry conditions continue to lower the condition of the barley crop and push its development faster than normal. As of July 23, the barley crop in North Dakota, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service field office, was rated six percent very poor, 18 poor, 38 fair, 36 good and two percent excellent. The field office in Minnesota reported similar ratings with eight percent very poor, 13 percent poor, 29 percent fair, 47 good and three percent excellent.
Crop progress in Minnesota was 90 percent turning, with 49 percent the five-year average (2001-2005) and six percent harvested, compared to the five-year average of one percent. Eleven percent of the barley acres were harvested in North Dakota by July 23, which compares to the five-year average of one percent.
A check of local elevator prices showed board prices for feed barley were steady to a nickel higher than the prices two weeks ago. Feed barley was trading in a 21-cent range going from a low of $1.44 to a high of $1.65 a bushel.
Malting barley prices, when compared to prices two weeks ago, were steady to off a dime. Malting barley prices were in a range from $2.24 to $2.50 a bushel.
On July 28 the U.S. Grains Council announced almost one million bushels of barley were sold to Japan during their third Simultaneous Buy Sell feed barley tender. Next week the USGC will host a feed barley team from Japan, which will represent all of the major feed barley importers, Farm & Ranch Guide released August 03.
The team will have a chance to meet with barley members in North Dakota and Montana as well as other major barley producing states. The USGC hopes this visit will boost U.S. barley sales to Japan which imported 13 million bushels of U.S. barley in the 2004/05 marketing year.
Despite persistent dry conditions in most of the region, some areas are reporting fairly good numbers from the early barley harvest. Kelly Kotowicz at the Alvarado Farmers Elevator in Alvarado, Minnesota, said the barley harvest so far has been a pleasant surprise to growers in his area.
“The quality of the barley is pretty good so far, with low VOM numbers on the early harvested barley and yields running in the 60 to 65 bushels per acre range,” he said. “In addition, the test weights have been in the 50 pound range and the proteins are low. The grains seem to have gone down with their roots and found the moisture. It's been amazing; I didn't think the grain would have filled the way it did.
“Right now, since harvest began, the markets are just hanging in there and not doing a whole lot,” he continued. “They want to see what's out there first. I know a few buyers are starting to get a little more aggressive on the (negative) VOM barley which is coming in.”
Kotowicz feels the barley market is pretty well over the effects of weather, and prices in the future will now hinge on the barley stocks situation after harvest.
Even though the barley quality and yields have been good in northwestern Minnesota, he has heard reports of poor yields and crop quality in other barley producing areas west of the Red River.
“We're hearing about so many different yields in other areas, it's like throwing a dart,” he said. “The way it looks, the prices are going to hang around this level for a while until we get all of the numbers run through.”
04 August, 2006
