Canada: Malting barley up CA$31 to CA$35 per tonne in first 2007-08 CWB Pool Return Outlook

The malting barley PRO is up CA$35 per tonne for two-row and CA$31 for six-row, according to the first CWB’s Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2007-08 crop year of February 26.

Market projections

PRO Commentary
2007-08 crop year

Feed barley
Global feed barley import demand is projected to decline in 2007-08, due in part to better pasture prospects in parts of North Africa and the Middle East. Barley production is also projected to decrease in the Black Sea region, as spring barley area in the Ukraine is set to decline due to increased winter-wheat plantings last fall. Australian barley supplies are extremely tight and new production remains 10 months away from hitting the market. Barley production in the European Union is expected to increase, but the EU has not been aggressive in subsidizing exports. Canada's potential for feed barley exports will be influenced by the volume of the Canadian domestic crop and the level of offshore feed-barley values relative to our domestic market.

Designated barley
Overall, the malting barley market will remain relatively strong due to tight supplies and steady demand. The global malting barley trade is projected to increase due to stronger demand in China, where rising beer production will continue to increase malting barley demand. Continued good demand from the U.S. is expected to keep six-row malting barley price prospects strong. Australian malting barley supplies are tight and will not impact the market until new-crop supplies become available in December 2007. The EU has virtually no carry-in stocks of malting barley and will be dependent on a favourable harvest. The strength of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar and high ocean-freight costs will continue to have a big impact on the PRO.

28 February, 2007