Canada: Barley production is forecast to decrease by 4% for 2008/2009

Canada barley production is forecast by Statistics Canada to decrease by 4%, as the decline in area is partly offset by higher yields Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) communicated on July 2. Barley Supply is expected to fall by 7% due to lower carry-in stocks.

Total barley exports are expected to decrease significantly due to lower exports of feed barley while exports of malting barley are forecast to remain stable. Carry-out stocks are forecast to remain stable at near record low levels. The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to increase from 2007-08 due to lower supply and higher US feed grain prices.

Canada production of grains and oilseeds (G&O) for 2008-09 is forecast by Statistics Canada to increase to about 64 million tonnes (Mt) from 60 Mt in 2007-08.

It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the remainder of the growing and harvest periods, and that the abandonment rate and crop quality will be normal. Slightly above trend yields are now expected for most crops in western Canada, due to improved moisture and warmer weather. Normal yields are expected for eastern Canada.

World and Canadian prices for G&O are expected to remain historically high due to strong demand and low world carry-in stocks. The main factors to watch are: expected yields and quality in western Canada, harvest conditions, volatility of commodity markets and crop prospects for US corn and soybeans.

07 August, 2008