Australian Barley. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) confirmed on September 15 that late winter rains have significantly boosted Australia's grain crop potential. That is why ABARE raised its forecast of Australia's 2003-2004 barley crop to 7.33 million tonnes from a June forecast of 6.66 million tonnes. As to be expected, this is a significant rise on the poor 3.3 million tonnes harvested in 2002/03, HGCA reported in a statement.

The key state barley producers in 2003/04 are set to be South Australia with 2.3 million tonnes (1.3 million tonnes in 2002), Western Australia with 2.2 million tonnes (1.2 million tonnes in 2002), Victoria with 1.3 million tonnes (0.4 million in 2002) and New South Wales 1.3 million tonnes (0.3 million in 2002). Queensland and Tasmania make up the rest.

Domestic barley usage and exports are set to rise in 2003/04.Total domestic usage is forecast at 2.4 million tonnes (2.1 million in 2002). Of this, feed use is placed at 2.1 million tonnes (1.8 million tonnes in 2002). Seed usage makes up the rest. Exports are set to reach 4.8 million tonnes versus 2.3 million tonnes in 2002, of which feed barley exports are placed at 2.2 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes in 2002), malting barley at 2 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes in 2002), and malt in grain equivalent at 0.6 million tonnes (0.6 million tonnes in 2002).

What will be of interest is the final production figure in New South Wales and Western Australia as these are the key exporting states of both feed and malting barley. Any changes in these crop figures, or quality of harvest, could have an impact on the malting barley market, with China almost certainly keeping a careful eye on the developments. It is worth noting that Australian barley exports rank in the top 10 exports to China by value.

19 September, 2003