Canada: Barley exports to fall to their second lowest level since the 1960s

Canada's barley exports are to fall to their second lowest level since the 1960s despite growing demand from Chinese brewers, after wet weather depressed production even lower than had been expected, Agrimoney posted on August 11th.

The US Department of Agriculture's Ottawa bureau slashed by 29% to 1.0m tonnes its forecast for in 2010-11 barley shipments from Canada, historically one of the biggest exporters of the grain.

The fall comes despite growing interest from China, which buys an average of 386,000 tonnes of malting barley from Canada a year.

The Canadian Wheat Board, essentially Canada's barley and wheat export monopoly, in April cut a landmark deal to supply China with 500,000 tonnes of malting barley over five years.

'Feed exports minimal'

However, Canada's barley crop will fall to 7.8m tonnes, below the 9.2m tonnes the bureau had initially factored in, and also 600,000 tonnes less than the USDA's official forecast.

"This could be the smallest barley crop in nearly 50 years," the bureau said in a report, noting the "extremely wet conditions" in Canada, particularly in May and June.

"Exports of feed barley are expected to be minimal," the briefing said, adding that international prices would be "supported" by lower world production, fostered by the removal in the European Union of intervention subsidies.

The report follows a doubling in feed barley prices in six weeks to above E200 a tonne in Europe, fostered by a scramble for supplies by Middle Eastern buyers caught out by the squeeze on exports from the Black Sea grain states.

Wheat revisions

The bureau also cut its estimates for Canada's wheat production, to 20.9m tonnes, and exports, to 15.5m tonnes, although these revisions bought the forecasts in line with the USDA's official figures.

The USDA will on Thursday issues its latest monthly updates for global crop supply and demand.

And the report flagged a threat to improving barley varieties from a dwindling interest in crop research.

"The industry faces a crisis in the decline of the breeding and agronomy research sector as more and more scientists are retiring," the bureau said.

"Finding young scientists interested in plant breeding is a challenge and various commodity groups are looking for ways to promote the field."

11 August, 2010