USA: Barley production for 2011/12 drops 12 mln bushels from 2010

U.S. barley production for 2011/12 is forecast at 168 mln bushels, down 4 mln from last month and down 12 mln from 2010, USDA reported on August, 15.

Based on August 1 conditions, producers expect yields to average 70.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushels from last month. Production is expected to reach record lows on lower harvested acreage and yield as compared with last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 2.4 mln acres, slightly lower than last month’s estimate and down 3 percent from 2010. On August 8, 72 percent of this year’s U.S. crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, compared with 83 percent a year ago.

Total barley supplies in 2011/12 are lowered 4 mln bushels this month to 268 mln, as a result of lower production. Domestic use is forecast at 210 mln bushels, unchanged this month. With lower supply and steady use, this month’s ending stocks are projected down 4 mln bushels to 58 mln, compared with 89 mln in 2010/11.

U.S. Census Bureau revisions for calendar year 2010 increased barley exports for 2009/10 slightly. Exports for 2010/11 were reduced slightly. Imports were reduced 0.5 mln bushels to 9.5 mln.

Prices received by farmers for barley in 2011/12 are expected to average $5.80 - $6.90 per bushel, raised 15 cents on both ends of the range this month. This compares with $3.86 per bushel for 2010/11. Although prices for feed barley are expected to increase largely in line with those for corn and sorghum, price gains will be limited for malting barley as much of the crop is produced under contract.

24 August, 2011