Canada: For 2003-04, barley exports in Canada are forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) at 2.8 million metric tonnes, versus 0.9 million metric tonnes in 2002-03, according to a report published on February 13. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 18%, to 1.7 Mt.

For 2004-05, barley production in Canada is forecast to increase by 8%, as higher yields more than offset lower area. Total supplies are expected to rise to 15.0 million metric tonnes from 13.8 million metric tonnes in 2003-04. Domestic use is forecast to increase by 11% due to increased feed demand. Exports are projected to decline slightly, to 2.75 million metric tonnes. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 1.9 million metric tonnes from 1.7 million metric tonnes for 2003-04. Off-Board feed barley prices are forecast at $125/t, the same as for 2003-04. The CWB 2004-05 pool returns for No.1 CW Feed barley are forecast by AAFC at $150/t, I/S VC/SL, versus the Jan. 2003-04 PRO of $158/t. CWB pool returns for Special Select Two Row designated barley are forecast at $190/t, versus the Jan. 2003-04 PRO of $197/t, as a result of increased world barley supplies.

20 February, 2004