World: All grain crop forecast lower this year

World grain markets, led by the CBoT and MATIF, performed a roller coaster show in September, industry analysts said in a report published on October, 1.

There was a sharp downturn during the last decade, based on obvious grain rationing, on hopes of better corn and soybean yields, and on profit taking by the mighty funds.

Bullish U.S. wheat and corn stock reports reversed the trend temporarily on the last trading day of September. Fundamentals remain firm, IGC and USDA report a short supply of grains and oilseeds, but - luckily for many Asian countries - a good crop of rice.

IGC crop estimates in mln tons (last year in brackets) are: all grains 1 767 (1 850), soybeans 256 (237), canola/rapeseed 60.6 (59.9), rice 466 (464).

All forecasts, particularly for corn and soybeans, depend on the outcome of the southern hemisphere crops, where huge harvests are forecast after poor crops in March/May of this year. However, consumption will not be reduced enough to match the smaller supplies; year-end stocks are forecast to be at record low levels, industry experts said.

17 October, 2012