UK: Beer and cider consumption forecast to decline further by 2018

The number of pints of beer and cider consumed in the UK will fall by 1.6 billion between now and 2018, The Drinks Business cited on January, 14 a forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility.

Conversely, the number of 250 ml glasses of wine will rise by 856 mln, while the number of cigarettes smoked will also fall by 9 bln.

The numbers are part of the OBR’s forecast estimates regarding social habits, which will determine future tax levels.

The estimated fall in beer and cider consumption represents a decline from 53.2 mln hectolitres to 43.9 mln hl over the next five years.

Wine consumption by contrast goes up from 13.9 mln hl to 16 mln hl. All taken into account, this apparent shift in drinking styles will see the country consuming 2.4 bln units fewer by 2018.

It does not appear that these figures include the alcohol industry’s commitment to take 1bln units out of production by 2015.

Nonetheless, despite this fall, tax revenues from alcohol are still expected to rise £3 bln to £23 bln by 2018 in line with scheduled above-inflation increases.

The impact of minimum pricing was not included in these forecasts either.

The news comes on the back of the revelation that the average cost of a bottle of wine has risen above the £5 mark for the first time.

16 January, 2013