Canada: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, published new grains forecast on March 12, 2004. For 2003-04, barley exports are forecast at 2.5 Mt, versus 0.9 Mt in 2002-03. Carry-out barley stocks are forecast to increase by 53%, to 2.2 Mt. For 2004-05, barley production is forecast to decrease slightly, as lower area more than offsets higher yields. Total supplies are expected to rise slightly. Domestic use is forecast to increase due to higher feed demand. Exports are projected to fall slightly to 2.4 Mt, as lower feed barley exports, as a result of stronger competition from Europe, are expected to more than offset higher demand for malting barley from China. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 9% from 2003-04 to 2.4 Mt. Off-Board feed barley prices are forecast to average $125/t for No.1 Feed, cash I/S Lethbridge, the same as for 2003-04. The February CWB PRO for 2004-05 for No.1 CW feed barley is $128/t, I/S VC/SL, $29/t below 2003-04. The February CWB PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is $164/t, versus $197/t for 2003-04.

19 March, 2004