World supply and demand of barley looks tight again for 2004/05, but there will be a major difference to the present campaign: better supplies of feed wheat and maize will dampen domestic demand in Russia, Ukraine and in the EU. Russia’s crop forecast of IGC is 16 million tonnes versus 17.9 million tonnes in 2003, when lost winter acres were replanted with spring barley. A private forecaster puts the Ukrainian barley crop at 8.4 million tonnes, 1 million tonne up from last year. Black Sea exports, also from Bulgaria/Romania, may play a great part once more in world barley markets.

07 May, 2004