Russia: Analysts warn of possible 15-20% decline in wheat output

Concerns over Russia's grain prospects deepened as SovEcon, foreseeing a fall of some 15-20% in wheat output, warned on October 24 that the depreciating rouble threatened hopes of strong spring sowings offsetting losses in the vulnerable winter crop.

The influential analysis group, in its first forecasts for Russia's 2015 grain harvest, warned that total grains output may fall below 90 mln tonnes, from the level of 103 mln – 105 mln tonnes achieved this year.

The wheat harvest, which this year hit 58 mln – 59 mln tonnes, may drop below 50 mln tonnes, SovEcon said.

The forecast reflected the "extremely weak condition" of autumn-sown grains, which the Moscow-based group rated at 62 points on an index drawn from NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) data, and where 100 points is the long-term average.

That is by far the lowest figure on ratings going back five years – which had never before dropped below 80 – and well below that in 2009, preceding a 33% slump in wheat production at harvest the following year.

The poor condition rating reflects a dearth of moisture, which has left crops in a poor state heading into winter, raising the prospect of large rates of freeze damage.

"A lack of moisture resulted in a very weak development of winter grains," SovEcon said.

"Weak plants are less resistant to low temperatures thus the risk of increased winterkill losses is quite significant."

Winterkill rates for Russia have ranged in recent seasons from some 2.5% in a "good" crop year to 12.6% in the winter of 2009-10, preceding the poor 2010 crop.

And SovEcon cautioned too of the threat posed by the weak rouble to spring sowings which, besides representing a large and routine part of Russian grains area, would typically offer an option for farmers to reseed crops lost to winterkill.

Although growers had managed extensive autumn sowings, this was largely using "inputs purchased earlier", before the latest lurch lower in the rouble to fresh record lows of nearly 42 roubles to $1.

The rouble has fallen some 17% over the past three months alone, weakened by the drop in oil prices, besides concerns over Western sanctions against Russia over its alleged role in stoking Ukrainian unrest.

Western companies supplying farmers with inputs such as seeds and inputs for spring crops "will be definitely raising their rouble prices by 20-25%", Andrey Sizov Jr, SovEcon managing director, told Agrimoney.com.

"That may have a negative effect on spring plantings."

"Some farmers may prefer not to plant, or some may prefer less expensive crops," said Mr Sizov, a factor likely mitigating against corn.

Whole corn, a relatively fertilizer-intensive crop, has represented an increasing proportion of Russia's grains harvest, the growth has been fuelled by use of expensive hybrid seeds.

29 October, 2014