Weather in May has been predominantly advantageous for the development of all crops, mostly cool and rainy, even in the Balkans and the Iberian Peninsula. All forecasters have increased their crop estimates of barley and other grains. In South, West and Central Europe the yields of winter barley look very good and can hardly be affected by detrimental weather any more during the last weeks before harvest. Especially Spain and France will harvest large crops. Spring barley, which is looking good as well at this time, still needs good precipitation for high yields and good quality. It must not be overlooked that soil moisture in parts of France, Benelux, Germany and the Czech Republic is still at perilously low level. Semi-official and private sources reduced acreage expectations of spring barley in the U.K., Denmark and Sweden, therefore our crop estimate of 57,8 Mill. tons in the expanded EU is 500,000 tonnes lower than the latest IGC figure. No doubt, final figures may still improve. Another feature of the crop prospects is quality. If a good crop is harvested, the share of malting barley will be larger than earlier thought, and the surplus beyond domestic needs may surpass the 1 million tonnes by a good margin (Stratйgie Grains already estimates 2 million tonnes).
18 June, 2004
