Canada barley production for 2004-05 is forecast by AAFC to increase by 3% due to higher yields, despite lower seeded area, based on Statistics Canada's June survey of seeded area. Due to higher carry-in stocks and production, supplies are expected to rise by 9%. Feed use is expected to increase, due to higher barley supplies in western Canada and increased shipments to eastern Canada. Malting barley exports are expected to rise, as import demand from China returns to normal. Feed barley exports are forecast to fall, due to increased competition from the EU-25, Australia and the Black Sea region. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to be the same as 2003-04, as support from higher US corn prices is offset by pressure from larger domestic production. The CWB June PRO for No.1 CW Feed Barley is $134/t I/S VC/SL, versus $164/t for 2003-04. The PRO for Special Select Two Row designated barley is $187/t versus $200/t for 2003-04, mainly due to higher supplies expected in Europe and Australia.

09 July, 2004