Canada: Barley use forecast to increase by 11% this season

For 2015-16, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to increase by 11% to 6.1 mln tonnes which is below the previous five-year average. The modest usage increase is due to increased feed use as industrial use remains unchanged, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported in May.

Barley exports are forecast to decrease by 17% to 2.05 mln tonnes due to lower world feed barley trade and trend malt barley demand.

Barley carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 15% to 1.4 mln tonnes, or slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

Canadian barley stocks are expected to increase by 12% from 2014-15. The bulk of increase is in the Praire Provinces. Overall, total Canadian barley stocks are estimated to be 4% higher than the previous five-year average.

For 2016-17, barley-seeded area is forecast to increase by 4% from 2015-16, to 2.743 mln ha, due to good barley values and near steady values for malt barley.

Production is forecast to increase by 3% to 8.5 mln tonnes due to the higher area and a forecast for average yields.

Due to slightly higher production and higher carry-in stocks, supply is expected to increase by 5% to 9.95 mln tonnes. Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 2% to 6.25 mln tonnes due mainly to slightly higher feed use in cattle and hog production.

Exports are forecast to remain unchanged despite lower global supplies of barley but steady malt barley movement.

Despite slightly higher total use, Canadian barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by 18% to 1.7 mln tonnes, above the previous five-year average.

Area seeded to barley in Canada is expected to increase by 4% due to a higher year-to-year forecast for livestock feedings and steady prices for malt barley on the Prairies. The 2016 Canadian barley area is slightly higher than both the previous three and five-year averages. However, it is over 13% lower than the previous 10-year average.

Starting in 2010, there has been a shift out of barley in Canada as evidenced by the 10-year averages in the 1990’s and 2000’s of 4.62 and 4.38 mln ha, respectively. For the current decade, seeded area has been averaging about 2.73 mln ha, representing about a 40% decline in total barley area. In Canada, the vast majority of the barley is used for livestock feeding. Since the BSE crisis in 2003, total cattle numbers on the Canadian Prairies have decreased significantly and reduced the demand for feed barley. Relatively lower prices for feed substitutes such as wheat, corn and DDGS have also played a role. Competition from these more profitable crops has reduced the incentive to plant barley, although malt barley remains a strong competitor.

20 May, 2016