Canada: Barley use forecast to increase by 11% in 2015-16 and to be up only marginally in 2016-17

In 2015-16, Canada’s total domestic barley use is forecast to increase by 11% to 6.1 mln tonnes due to increased feed use, with industrial use remaining unchanged, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported in July.

Exports are forecast to decrease by 17% to 9.578 mln tonnes due to lower world trade in feed barley.

Carry-out stocks of barley are expected to increase by 15% to 1.4 mln tonnes which is slightly higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to increase from 2014-15 due to the tight total supply and good domestic feed barley demand. Barley prices at Lethbridge have been pressured by good old crop supplies, a better barley crop on the way and much improved forage and pasture conditions on the Prairies.

For 2016-17, seeded area is forecast to decrease slightly from 2015-16 and production is forecast to decrease by 4% to 8 mln tonnes due to the lower area and a forecast for average yields.

Despite higher carry-in stocks, the lower production will cause total supply to decrease by 2% to 9.5 mln tonnes.

Total domestic use is forecast to increase marginally to 6.3 mln tonnes.

Exports are forecast to remain unchanged despite lower world barley supply, however, slightly higher malt barley movement is supportive.

Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 18% to 1.2 mln tonnes.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease from 2015-16 due to lower US corn prices and generally lower coarse grain prices.

This spring on the Canadian Prairies barley seeding was completed in a timely fashion and conditions are improved from the dry conditions in 2015 across the western part of the Prairie Provinces. Barley abandonment should return to normal levels as forage and pasture growth are much better than at this time last year.

Overall barley conditions are good although there are still some dry pockets in Albertan and Saskatchewan. However, in Manitoba there are some areas of excess moisture concern.

Saskatchewan was the only province in Canada to increase its barley area for 2016. Nevertheless, Saskatchewan’s 2016 barley area is 14% lower than their previous 10-year average.

The area seeded to barley in the USA is estimated to be 17% lower than 2015. However, yield prospects are good. The largest barley states are Idaho, North Dakota and Montana. The US will have good barley supplies, for at least the first half of the crop year, so higher prices for malting barley look remote.

20 July, 2016