Canada: Barley acreage to decrease by 10% in 2017-18

For 2017-18, Canada’s barley-seeded area is forecast to decrease by 10% from 2016-17 to a record low of 2.3 million hectares, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its October report.

Production is forecast to decrease 17% to 7.3 mln tonnes or record lows due to the lower area and a below average total yield. Although carry-in stocks are at a seven-year high, the lower production will cause total supply to decrease by 7% to 9.5 mln tonnes. Total domestic use is forecast to increase by 3% due to higher feed and industrial use. Total barley exports are forecast to decrease by 7% to 2.15 mln tonnes because of lower world barley trade due to high corn and wheat supplies. Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 36% to 1.4 mln tonnes, falling below the previous five and ten year averages. The Lethbridge In-store feed barley price is forecast to increase due to the tighter total barley supplies, a higher US corn futures price and the decline in other feed grains supplies.

The average Canadian barley yield is estimated to be slightly below the previous five-year average. The updated yield estimate increased total barley production by about 100,000 tonnes. Lethbridge barley had mounted a price rally at the end of last crop year before declining in limited harvest pressure. Throughout September feed barley had traded at a premium to Lethbridge feed wheat and by the end of September Lethbridge barley jumped to 2016-17 crop year highs. Price outlook remains good as the many regions of the Prairies had limited forage and pasture growth due to the dry conditions which will reduce hay supplies and see cattle leave fall pastures earlier than normal.

For US barley, the USDA Stocks and Small Grains Summary report showed that for 2017-18 US barley production decreased by 29% mainly due to sharply lower yields in the northern barley states and is the smallest US barley crop on record. US barley stocks also declined and are 22% lower than September 1, 2016. Most of the decline is in farm stocks which are down 32%. In the September WASDE report, the USDA lowered the 2017-18 US farm gate barley price from US$5.40/bushel (bu) to $4.70/bu. However, given the lower US production and stocks and lower world stocks, this may have been premature.

A decrease in global barley production, among the major exporting countries, has reduced supply to a multi-decade low which in turn continues to provide price support for feed and malt barley. Last crop year world feed barley traded at a discount to corn. However, this started to reverse by late spring and the average world FOB feed barley price has gained about US$1.00/bushel (bu) or US $45/tonne (t) to-date. With smaller barley crops, especially in Australia and the EU, the premium for malting barley relative to feed barley remains above the five-year average. To-date for this crop year, both the world feed and malt barley prices are averaging about US $20/t higher than last crop year.

15 October, 2017