Canada & United States: CMBTC expects average barley yields in most of Western Canada

The most salient fact about the crop conditions in the Prairies is that hot and dry conditions have advanced crop development and as a consequence barley harvest will start within the next few weeks in many parts of the west. A number of crop tours that took place last week have concluded that the crop yields will be average through most of the west and lower yields will occur in southern Alberta and sections of southern and central Saskatchewan, CMBTC said in its latest update on August 1.

The August weather forecast for the Prairies is for above average temperatures and below normal rainfall which is not conducive to increase yield potential. Certainly areas that will be without any further precipitation may not achieve normal yields as the crop starts to go backwards in those regions. The only areas slated to get some rains are the central and northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Talking with some farmers, even some who had good growing conditions, they indicate that fields are maturing quicker than normal and that the yields will only be average. They state that the head count in the barley plants are lower than in previous years and they do not have an explanation. Some speculate that it could be due to high winds of 60 km/hr or more, the winds were a more frequent occurrence this summer, or heat blasts, where extreme heat adversely affected growth. There is not a definite conclusion of why the head count is lower.

This summer has generated lots of heat and a minimum of rain in Western Canada, not too dissimilar from the Baltic States, Sweden, Denmark and Australia, which all continue to suffer from extremely dry conditions, and a number of European countries which have suffered drought conditions. Barley crops worldwide have been affected by dry weather and a general lack of rain will negatively affect the world barley supplies. Overall the optimism is that the Prairies will produce, at best, an average crop of roughly 8.5 million tonnes.

Western Canada

Alberta

Alberta crop conditions continue to slip, especially in the southern part of the province. The central area is generally in good condition and the farmers are already looking forward to harvest in the next two weeks. The northern section has had good rains and is progressing very well. The crops are stressed in the south due to lack of moisture and continued hot and dry weather. Overall the provincial rating has slipped to 71%, down slightly from last week. The biggest drop is in the southern region.

• South: Calgary/Lethbridge – Dry hot conditions are the major impediment to the crop production in this region. There was minimal rain, in the past week, and the forecast for the first half of August is for hot dry weather, temperatures in the 30°C-range, with no rain. The crop conditions can only get worse with this forecast. Some crops have survived on minimal moisture reserves but those are getting eroded and crop production has suffered. For most farmers, rain at this juncture of the growing season would not be of any use for barley. The overall crop rating has dropped from 57% to 45%. Some harvesting should begin this week in this region.

• Central: Lacombe – This area received some intense rainfall that produced damaging hail. Most of the area has received timely rains in the last week which promoted good crop growth. The erratic rainfall erased most of the random pockets that were dry. Overall this area is doing well and should produce yields of 70 to 80 bushels per acre. Harvest should commence by mid-August.

• North: Vegreville – Scattered rain and localized hail storms has created a situation of variability in crop conditions. More potential heavy rains are forecast for this region for this week which would bring the potential for additional hail damage. The crop looks good at this time.
Saskatchewan

Expanded dryness in central and southern parts of the province has moved north in the last few weeks. The dry region of Saskatoon and Regina has certainly experienced a general lack of rainfall throughout the summer and the forecast for August is for less than normal rainfall which will add stress to the barley crop.

In other parts of the province, especially around the Melfort area, conditions are ripe for fusarium head blight, in large part due to the fact that this area was wetter last year. The southern areas have been mostly hot and dry and the risk for fusarium in this area is low.

Overall, the majority of the barley crops are advancing quickly due to warm weather and scattered rainfall. Not all the areas have equally shared the rainfall, as some regions have been more favoured in the amount of moisture that they have received and others have not been as fortunate. The benefits of the warm weather is that crop development has benefited most areas and harvest should begin by mid-August for some regions.

• East Central: Melfort – The majority of the crops are progressing well in this area; they have benefited from warm weather and good precipitation over the summer.

• Northwest: Saskatoon/Lloydminister – This region continues to enjoy good crop conditions. It has benefited from good rains and warm weather. There has been some damage from hail and some localized flooding from an intense rain event 10 days ago.

• West Central: Saskatoon – The crop rating in this area has dropped over the last few weeks due to a lack of rain. The hot dry winds that have ravaged parts of this region have eroded much of the top soil moisture.

• Southeast: Weyburn – The crops continue to develop quickly due to the warmer temperatures.

• Southwest: Swift Current – Again this area was not the recipient of any significant moisture the past week. Crops are developing rapidly, however the lack of moisture will not add bushels to this crop. Any rain now would only sustain the crop.

• Northeast: Yorkton – This area has managed to maintain their crop rating of 81%, a direct result of good rains throughout the summer. The barley crops are looking good and yield prospects are for average yields of 70 bushels per acre.
Manitoba

There were a few rain events this past week unfortunately, with some of the heaviest rainfall in the city of Winnipeg. Temperatures were above normal throughout July with below normal rainfall. The hot dry weather and low rainfall has rapidly advanced crop development to the point that barley harvesting has just started this week in some parts of the province.

• Southwest: Brandon – The crops are advancing well in this region. There are barley fields that have not had sufficient rain and they are lagging in crop development but overall this area is doing well.
• Northwest: Dauphin – The warm weather and the timely rains have helped push the crops to mature quicker this summer. More warm weather and rains are in the forecast for this region which can only benefit the crops.

• Eastern: Winnipeg south – There was spotty rains in this region. Although the general rainfall has been less than average, the crops are looking generally good. We will have some barley harvest beginning on Wednesday, weather permitting. Harvest will begin in the first half of August for most of the crop in this area.

United States

North Dakota

Harvest has commenced, the earliest start being for the barley in the Sidney area. Some of this early harvested barley has shown results of: test weight of 49 lbs.; plump 88%; and protein of 12%. To date most of the farmers have been mildly surprised by their yields. Due to the excessive heat and spotty rains through the summer, the barley yields are average to slightly above average.

Idaho

Harvest has commenced and some samples have been analyzed indicating that the test weight is a little lower than normal (47 to 51 lbs.). Normally the test weight is 52 lbs. or better. The varied test weight results could be related to the hot dry periods that were the norm in June and July. The protein results have been lower than normal, probably as a direct result of the excess moisture in May and June. To date there is no information on the yields.

Montana

Some crop was lost this week due to severe hail storms which pounded some barley fields. Harvest will begin in 10 to 14 days in the Fairfield area, which is a more irrigated region, and the crops closer to the border will begin harvest in last half August.

02 August, 2018