Canada: Barley use up 1% in 2017/18
For 2017-18, Canada’s total domestic barley use increased by 1% to 5.943 mln tonnes with slightly higher feed use and a decline in industrial use, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its September report.
Total exports increased by 24% or to a 10-year high of 2.883 mln tonnes due to the steady total supply, strong exports to China and lower world barley supplies.
Barley carryout stocks decreased by 41% to 1.3 mln tonnes and remain below the previous three and five-year averages.
The Lethbridge In-store feed barley price increased by nearly 35% due to the tight total barley supplies, strong export movement and the decline in the availability of other domestic feed grain substitutes.
For 2018-19, the nation’s barley-seeded area is forecast to rebound from last year’s record low to 2.628 mln ha.
Production is forecast to increase to 8.0 mln tonnes due to the higher area harvested despite a below average total yield.
With sharply lower carry-in stocks, total supply is forecast to decrease to 9.3 mln tonnes.
Total domestic use is forecast to increase to 6.023 mln tonnes due to higher industrial use.
Exports are forecast to fall by 17% to 2.4 mln tonnes due to lower total supplies.
Barley carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 28% to 0.9 mln tonnes or a new record low.
The average Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to rise by 15% due to strong market conditions moderately from 2017-18.
The average Canadian barley yield is the lowest in the past four years, down 7% from the previous five-year average. Total barley production is estimated to increase by 1% due to higher area harvested. Similar to last crop year, the dry conditions on the western and southern half of the Prairie Provinces brought the overall yield down, especially in Saskatchewan. Barley production was variable in the western provinces with Manitoba having a lower yield then in 2017 but 2018’s yield is still higher than the previous five-year average. Saskatchewan had a year-to-year decline in yield of 14% but production declined only 1% due to higher seeded and harvested areas. Alberta, Canada’s largest barley producing province, saw its 2017 barley yield decline by 7% but, similar to Saskatchewan, higher harvested area will allow production to increase. In Eastern Canada, barley harvested area and production reversed the short term trend and increased by 12% and 10%, respectively, due to higher yields in Ontario, Prince Edward Island and Quebec.
The Statistics Canada (STC) Stocks report verified the sharply lower barley stock situation entering the new crop year with a 41% decrease in total stocks. Carry-in stocks are well below the previous three and five-year averages and stocks are 28% lower than the previous 10-year average. Commercial stocks are lower than last year but still higher than the previous three and five-year averages. Alberta had the largest decline with stocks falling nearly 0.4 Mt compared to last year.
The price of barley at Lethbridge is $50/t higher than the same period last year. Carry in stocks are at a record low level, down 40% from last year. Canadian cattle and hog inventories are lower than last year but large parts of Western Canada, and to a lesser extent Eastern Canada, face shortages of forage and pasture. This will pressure feed grain supplies and provide underlying price support.
On the international side world barley production is at a multi-year low and carry-in stocks are at a multi-decade low. Most of the world’s major barley exporters had smaller barley crops for 2018 due to dry conditions which led to tight supplies of malt quality barley. World spot prices for malt barley have increased sharply over the past two months with the price premium, relative to feed barley, well above the previous five-year average.
16 September, 2018
