Canada: Barley trade quiet due to bitter cold

The barley trade in Canada has been quiet in the last few weeks as the prairies have suffered from bitter cold temperatures with most regions recording -30°C, CMBTC reported on February 1. However, snowfall levels have been extremely low in some regions of the prairies which is a concern, particularly in three areas:

• Southern Alberta (the area south of Calgary)

This region has been abnormally dry. There is a lack of snow and there has been very little in the manner of precipitation this winter. The constant mix of high winds that persistently blow through this region combined with above normal temperatures earlier this winter have not been favorable for soil moisture conditions. This is on the back of two consecutive drought years, and as a result there is reason to be concerned for farmers in the Lethbridge region.

• Saskatchewan

The Regina corridor to Saskatoon and areas surrounding Regina are a concern, as they had been dry going into winter and have received below normal snowfall.

• Manitoba

The Brandon region and the southwest corner of the province remain a concern, as this area has received below average snow fall and were already drier than normal last summer.
There is no doubt that the above regions and most of the prairies will require good rains in the spring to replenish the moisture levels.

Old crop malt barley prices continue to be bid in the range of C$252/tonne (or C$5.50/bushel) in most areas and there is premium paid for barley carried into June/July; barley has traded at C$264/tonne (C$5.75/bushel) for this position. The export market remains strong with shipments since August 1, 2018, to middle of January 2019 (week 25) reaching 1,178,100 tonnes, compared with 841,600 tonnes last year at this time, an increase of 335,000 tonnes year over year.

Lethbridge feed barley remains strong, with prices trading at C$255-C$260/tonne for February through May. This cold weather will certainly promote additional feed barley usage. New crop barley is bid at C$230/tonne for S/O.

StatsCanada issued a report last week which forecast that barley acres would increase by 6% over last year, indicating a crop size of 8.9 million tonnes compared to the 2017/18 crop of 8.4 million tonnes. They also are indicating that the carryover will increase from this year's projected 1 mln tonnes to 1.250 mln tonnes.

03 February, 2019