Canada: Barley supply down 4% in 2018-19, expected to increase next year

For 2018-19, Canadian barley supply decreased by 4% from 2017-18 to 9.7 million tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on May 17.

Exports are forecast to increase by 5% to almost 3.0 mln tonnes, the analysts said.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease mainly on less feed use, waste and dockage.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 28% to 0.9 mln tonnes, which is 44% lower than the past five year average.

World barley production for 2018-19 is estimated at the lowest level in six years, according to USDA. Carry-out stocks will be historically low, including a steep decline in major exporters. Due to lower imports by China and Saudi Arabia, world trade is expected to decrease. Amid tight supplies, world prices for feed barley have been very strong, compared to corn prices. Combined with abundant supplies of corn worldwide, the demand for corn has displaced barley in some countries.

As a result of lower supplies and strong demand, the feed barley price at Lethbridge is forecast at C$255/t, about 12% higher than last year. The average Prairie malt price is 17-24% higher than last year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said.

For 2019-20, area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 10% from 2018-19, due to high barley prices and tight carry-in stocks.

Production is forecast to increase by 12% to 9.4 mln while total supply increases by 7% to 10.3 mln tonnes.

Canada’s barley exports are forecast to decrease by 7% due to recovery of world supplies and a return to normal trade patterns.

Total domestic use is expected to rise due to higher feed use in cattle and hog production.

With a higher supply, barley carry-out stocks are forecast to increase by about 60% to 1.5 mln tonnes. This is about 5% higher than the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast to decrease by 12% from 2018-19 to C$225/t due to increased supplies of feed grains domestically and worldwide.

The USDA expects world barley production for 2019-20 to increase to the highest level in most recent 10 years, largely due to higher production from the world major exporters. World trade is projected to increase, owing to lifted import forecasts for Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase but remain low. Large corn inventories will put pressure on barley prices.

19 May, 2019