Canada: Barley exports expected to reach 3.13 mln tonnes in 2018-19

For 2018-19, Canadian barley exports are expected to increase from 2017-18 and reach an all-time high since 2008 – 3.13 mln tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported on August 21.

China is the main destination for Canadian barley grain exports, although it has reduced barley imports from Canada in 2018-19. However, the decline in exports to China is expected to be more than offset by higher exports to other countries as Canada diversified its destination countries. Malt exports are expected to show a slight decline but remain stable, the experts said.

Total domestic use is expected to decrease to 5.684 mln tonnes, primarily due to reduced feed use.

Canada’s barley carry-out stocks are expected to fall to the lowest level ever of 0.85 mln tonnes.

The average feed barley price in Lethbridge feedlots is finalized at C$260/t, an increase of 15% from 2017-18. The average Prairie malt barley prices are 19-23% higher than in 2017-18.

For 2019-20, the area seeded to barley in Canada increased by 14% from 2018-19 to almost 3.0 million hectares, according to Statistics Canada. The provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan accounted for most of the increase.

Using average yields and average abandonment rate for harvested area, production is expected to increase to 9.654 mln tonnes and largely offset the decline in carry-in stocks.

A large barley supply is expected for this year, which will support exports, ease domestic feed supply tightness and replenish carry-out stocks.

The average price of feed barley in Lethbridge feedlots for 2019-20 is forecast to decrease from 2018-19 on an abundant domestic and world supply expected for 2019-20. Supportive factors include strong US corn prices expected for 2019-20 and uncertain production prospects for new barley and hay crops, as well as worries about pasture development across the Prairie Provinces.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to rise to its highest level in ten years, largely due to improved output from the world’s major exporters, according to USDA. World trade is projected to rise. Deliveries to Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco are expected to increase. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years but remain low.

19 August, 2019