World barley: Upward revisions in yield estimates in Canada, Russia and Ukraine lift the world barley production forecast by 2.2 million tonnes, to 151.5 million tonnes (140 million tonnes), International Grains Council (IGC) published in its last Grain Market Report at the end of October. There are concerns about the impact of dry conditions this season in Australia, where harvesting has begun, but the crop estimate is unchanged, IGC said. Global consumption is also forecast higher than before, due to greater feed use in the US, Canada and the EU, although the total remains slightly below the previous year’s. Feed consumption will rise in Canada due to larger supplies and weaker prices, in a year when maize availabilities will be tighter and cattle numbers are at a record. World trade in barley is set to show some recovery in 2004/05, to 15.4 million tonnes, due to increases both in malting and feed imports. The export forecast for the EU has been raised by 0.8 million tonnes, to 2.5 million tonnes, following the reintroduction of export refunds. Increased production forecasts for Canada and the CIS will boost projected global carry-over stocks from last month, to 29.5 million tonnes (21.7 million tonnes). Although the greatest increase in barley stocks will be in the EU, the forecast has been lowered to accommodate somewhat higher than anticipated feed use and export estimates.

17 November, 2004