Canada: Barley production forecast to increase by almost 20% in 2019-20

For 2019-20, total barley production in Canada is estimated to increase by almost 20% from 2018-19 to close to 10 mln tonnes, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its November report. About 60% of the increase is anticipated to come from Alberta, the leading barley producing province in Canada, and almost 39% from Saskatchewan.

Total supply is expected to increase by 13% as the increase in production more-than offsets the historically low level of carry-in stocks.

The Prairie barley harvest has been struggling with wet weather. It was nearly 95% complete, as of the last week of October. Average yields varied across the Prairie Provinces. Barley production in the Prairie Provinces accounts for about 95% of total barley production in Canada. Considering the unharvested area in the Prairie Provinces at this time and the continued wet and cold weather in November, barley production in Canada will likely be lower than Statistics Canada’s (STC) September estimate.

The quality of the early harvested barley crop is generally good but the late harvested crop is expected to show a decrease in quality.

Domestic use of barley is expected to increase from 2018-19, reflecting stronger feed use. Exports are expected to decrease due to the increased supply of barley in competing countries and a decline in the supply of good quality barley in Canada. Carry-out stocks are anticipated to increase sharply.

Over the past few weeks, the average feed barley price in Lethbridge feedlots has been on the upward trend due to the concern over the level of production as well as quality issues. For 2019-20, to the end of October, the cumulative average price of feed barley is 10% lower than the same period of 2018-19. This is related to the anticipation of a plentiful supply of feed grains in 2019-20. As a result, the crop year average price of feed barley for 2019-20 is expected to be lower than for 2018-19.

World barley production for 2019-20 is projected to reach its highest level since 2008-09, largely due to increased output from the major exporting countries, including the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine. World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and stronger demand. Increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco will more-than offset decreased deliveries to other countries. World carry-out stocks are expected to increase to the highest level in the recent three years.

17 November, 2019