Canada: Barley production forecast to decrease in 2020-21

For 2019-20, barley production in Canada increased to 10.4 million tonnes, largely due to higher harvested area and higher yields, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their latest report published on February 14.

The total supply of barley increased by 17% from 2018-19 as higher production more-than offset the decrease in carry-in stocks which are historically low. The domestic use of barley is expected to increase significantly from 2018-19, largely due to higher feed use.

Exports are expected to increase slightly while carry-out stocks increase sharply, the analysts said.

The average price of feed barley is expected to be lower than 2018-19 due to the increased supply in Canada, the US and around the world. The supply of barley in the US increased due to higher production and projection for higher imports, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise due to an increase in supply exceeding the growth in total use.

World barley production and supply increased to the highest level since 1994-95. Barley production increased in the major exporting countries, including the EU, Russia and Ukraine. World trade is projected to rise due to higher supply and forecasts for increased imports from Saudi Arabia, China and Morocco. Total use is anticipated to grow. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 18% from 2018-19.

For 2020-21, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to decrease by 3% due to the sharp increase in carry-in stocks and lower prices. However, barley prices in 2019-20 have been relatively good compared to prices over the past few years, which will limit the decline in area seeded.

Production is forecast to decrease by 8% using previous 5-year (2015-16 to 2019-20) average for area harvested and yields for 2020-21. Supply is forecast to increase marginally. Domestic use is anticipated to remain largely unchanged. Exports are expected to be stable. As a result, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to be lower than 2019-20 due to increased supplies in Canada and lower feed grain prices in the US.

The USDA projects that area seeded to barley in the US for 2020-21 will fall by 4%, which, combined with forecasts for lower area harvested and yield, will result in a drop of 3% in US barley production. However, supply is projected to rise by 4% owing to increased carry-in stocks and higher imports. Total use is expected to increase by 6% with carry-out stocks remaining unchanged. The average US barley price is projected to fall by 8%.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), world barley supply, world use and carry-out stocks in 2020-21 will continue to increase.

16 February, 2020